Amin Saikal
This opinion piece by Emeritus Professor Amin Saikal—an advisory board member of the Mosaic Global Foundation and participant in its Cambridge Afghanistan Series (CAS)—was originally published in The Age on 1 July 2025
Though a peace deal has been struck between Israel and Iran, the ceasefire still hangs precariously in the balance.
Worse for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally, the war has proven to be a grave miscalculation that will linger in the memories of Israelis and Americans for years to come. First, it gave Iran the opportunity to show its retaliatory strength to the world. Second, it revealed Israel's vulnerability and utter dependence on the United States.
Initially, the US and Israel appeared to be in lockstep, with the president and prime minister showering praise on each other following the US airstrikes.
If the US had joined Israel’s campaign against Iran in full, it would have been a major victory for Netanyahu. But within days, Donald Trump was telling global media that the US had entered the war to "save Israel", and was savaging the Israeli Defence Forces for breaking the ceasefire, telling reporters that neither Iran nor Israel "know what the f--- they’re doing".
Yet any embarrassment caused to Netanyahu by Trump's claims of victory in Iran will now have been balanced by him declaring Netanyahu a great wartime leader, and calling on the Israeli judiciary to drop their bribery and fraud charges against the prime minister.
For much of his political career, Netanyahu has viewed his personal ambitions and Israel's security through the prism of conflict rather than peace. Historically, his idea of "peace through strength" has meant hitting opponents hard and forcing peace on his terms.
And while Netanyahu would have always expected the US to enter the conflict because Israel is unable to do the heavy lifting alone, dragging into the fray a president whose aversion to international conflict was a selling point to many American voters has placed Trump in a quandary: whether to keep his election promise of not involving the United States in another endless Middle East war, given America's Iraq and Afghanistan fiascos, or to back Israel in its moment of need.
But where Netanyahu expected a relatively sharp and swift victory, to which Israel has been accustomed, Tehran was able to make maximum use of its missile and drone arsenals, and rely on the Iranian people’s love of their country, to rally behind the government of the day — no matter whether popular or not — in the face of foreign aggression.
Whatever the future, the war has changed the dynamics for both Israel and Iran. It has also impacted many of Trump’s key supporters’ view of Israel, with leading MAGA ideologue Steve Bannon going so far as to label the Jewish state as America’s “protectorate”.
Another blow for Israel was Trump lifting sanctions on Iran to allow it to sell oil to China. As the president later explained, “They just had a war ... They fought it bravely ... They're going to need money to put that country back into shape. We want to see that happen.”
Though Trump offered to lift all sanctions in exchange for Iran’s “total surrender”, Tehran has rejected the call and banned the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency from visiting Iran.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s passion to get rid of Iran’s Islamic regime remains, as does his vision of a “greater Israel”, whereby it is the only nuclear-armed state in the region.
With Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz having ordered the IDF to break the ceasefire when needed and Iran vowing to rebuild its nuclear capability, it’s clear that neither side is truly content with what has been achieved.
Though the US did come to Israel’s aid, Netanyahu’s expectations of the US ultimately fell short. Netanyahu was keen to see the US join Israel’s campaign with sustained American firepower so that Iran was disabled totally from its missile and drone capability. This would mean the Islamic regime could be brought to its knees, opening the way for regime change. The regime has not only survived, but revels in what it also claims to be a “victory”.
With the war in Gaza continuing, the little spark that the war with Iran brought to Netanyahu has already dissipated.
- Amin Saikal is emeritus professor at the ANU; adjunct professor at University of Western Australia; Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow at Victoria University; and author of Iran Rising: The survival and future of the Islamic Republic.