Zalmai Nishat
This opinion piece by Zalmai Nishat, the Founder and Executive Chair of Mosaic Global Foundation was originally published in The Narrative 360 on 24 June 2025.
A Turning Point for Central Asia’s Stability
On 28 July 2022, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a landmark resolution, spearheaded by Turkmenistan and endorsed by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, declaring Central Asia a Zone of Peace, Trust, and Cooperation. This ambitious initiative seeks to foster long-term stability, economic collaboration, and cultural unity in a region historically shaped by geopolitical rivalries. By emphasising the shared Turco-Persian heritage, the resolution promotes regional connectivity, trade networks, and pluralism, providing a robust framework for peace, security, and sustainable development (UN Press Release, 2022).
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), often referred to as the New Silk Road, aligns with this vision through significant investments in infrastructure, energy, and trade, positioning Central Asia as a pivotal hub in global commerce. Projects such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, CASA-1000 energy grid, and Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-China railway exemplify the BRI’s potential to drive economic interdependence. In addition, Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway and Iran-Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan railway connecting Iran with five Central Asian states are but two other important projects, among dozens of other planned connectivity initiatives.
With the help of the West, India has been developing its own regional infrastructure projects as alternative to the Chinese BRI. Since 2003, India has been developing a deep-sea port at Chabahar, Iran, allowing it to bypass Pakistan, linking with Afghanistan and Central Asia and Russia through the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Due to Western sanctions of Iran, the project has been slow (The Diplomat 2025). Another key development is the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor (IMEC). Via the Gulf, the US and the EU aim to draw India closer and counter Chinese influence. Due to Israel Gaza conflict, the IMEC is stalled (European Council of Foreign Relations 2024).
With these geopolitical competing connectivity projects, as of June 2025, the region faces mounting challenges, including debt sustainability, security concerns, and the escalating Iran–USA conflict, which threaten the BRI’s ability to support the Zone of Peace. This article comprehensively assesses the BRI’s progress, the impact of the Iran–USA conflict, and the strategies needed to ensure Central Asia’s path toward peace, trust, and cooperation. The Western supported, Indian-led, connectivity projects might require separate scrutiny later.
Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape
Central Asia, historically part of Greater Khurasan—encompassing Afghanistan, parts of Iran, Pakistan, and Kashgar—sits at a strategic crossroads between global powers, including China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Türkiye, Iran, the United States, and the European Union. Regional dynamics are further complicated by competing blocs, such as the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) and potential Iranic alliances. The BRI’s investments, including the Khorgos Gateway dry port and the China–Central Asia–West Asia Corridor, aka the Middle Corridor, where the role of the South Caucasus state (Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia) is key, have transformed connectivity, facilitating trade routes to Europe, South Asia, and the Middle East. Yet, these projects risk amplifying China’s influence, prompting concerns from Russia, India, and Western powers (Carnegie Endowment, 2020).
The Iran–USA conflict, intensified by Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and US military actions in June 2025, introduces significant risks. Iran’s role as a BRI partner, particularly through the China–Iran overland corridor, is critical for bypassing Western sanctions and linking Central Asia to Middle Eastern markets. However, conflict-related disruptions, including energy market volatility and increased migration, threaten BRI infrastructure and regional stability. The UN resolution’s diplomatic frameworks, including preventive diplomacy and multilateral dialogue, aim to counterbalance these tensions.
Recent developments, such as the Second Central Asia–China Summit in Astana (June 2025), where China pledged a 1.5 billion yuan (US$208 million) grant for public projects, underscore alignment with the resolution’s goals (News Central Asia, 2025). To maintain autonomy, Central Asia must reform ethno-nationalist policies, invite Tajikistan into the OTS, reforming the latter to leverage the Turco-Persian heritage as a unifying cultural force, instead of emphasising the Turkic component only, ensuring the BRI fosters cooperation rather than competition.
Key Pillars of Progress and Challenges
Strengthening Regional Stability and Security
The UN resolution institutionalises preventive diplomacy through annual Consultative Meetings of Heads of State and the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). The UNRCCA’s October 2024 meeting on water, energy, environment, and climate cooperation highlights proactive efforts to mitigate cross-border tensions (UN Security Council Report, 2025). The BRI supports stability through projects like the Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan–China railway, which enhances connectivity across borders (The Diplomat, 2025).
The Iran–USA conflict exacerbates security challenges. Energy market disruptions and potential migration from Iran could strain Central Asia’s borders, particularly Tajikistan’s, which already faces concerns over instability under Taliban rule in Afghanistan (Times of Central Asia, 2025). While a 2025 agreement resolved territorial disputes among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, underlying tensions persist, requiring sustained diplomatic efforts (Carnegie Endowment, 2025). The BRI must align with inclusive governance to address these risks and support the resolution’s peacebuilding objectives.
Advancing Economic and Development Goals
Central Asia’s landlocked geography underscores the importance of connectivity for economic prosperity. The BRI’s flagship projects, such as the CASA-1000 initiative—which exports hydroelectric power from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan—and the TAPI pipeline, drive economic interdependence, linking Central Asia to South Asia, Europe, and West Asia. As mentioned above it also includes railroad connectivity between Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The EU’s Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, supported by a 2025 Investors’ Forum in Uzbekistan, further enhances access to European markets (EU Council, 2025).
The Iran–USA conflict poses significant economic risks. Iran’s role in the China–Iran overland corridor, crucial for mitigating Western sanctions, faces disruptions from potential unrest or regime change, threatening BRI infrastructure like the TAPI pipeline (The Diplomat, 2024). Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan’s substantial debts to China, estimated at 20–40% of their GDP, heighten dependency concerns, particularly if energy imports falter due to conflict-related volatility (Carnegie Endowment, 2020). Transparent financing, equitable benefit-sharing, and diversified partnerships are essential to align the BRI with the resolution’s sustainable development goals.
Reinforcing Cultural and Historical Bonds
The Turco-Persian heritage serves as a cultural bridge uniting Central Asian nations, promoting pluralism through initiatives like the Central Asian Women Leaders’ Caucus, which fosters social inclusion and political participation. The BRI supports cultural exchange through tourism and people-to-people programs along Silk Road routes (Astana Times, 2025). However, the Iran–USA conflict risks polarising regional identities, as Iran’s Iranic heritage aligns with Tajikistan and Afghanistan, but may clash with the Turkic-focused OTS, potentially undermining cultural cohesion, , unless its reformed, something that Tajikistan might be keen. In addition, Central Asian states must prioritise multiculturalism and inclusive governance to counter ethno-nationalist divides, ensuring the BRI strengthens trust and cooperation.
Promoting Preventive Diplomacy in Global Peacebuilding
The resolution aligns with UN principles, positioning Central Asia as a stable geopolitical actor through the UNRCCA and Consultative Meetings. The BRI’s investments in stable trade routes, such as the Lapis Lazuli Corridor linking Afghanistan to Europe, complement these efforts. The Iran–USA conflict strains this framework, as China’s reliance on Iran as a Middle East foothold risks entangling Central Asia in broader rivalries. Russia’s wariness of Chinese influence and the US’s emphasis on human rights during the resolution’s adoption highlight ongoing tensions (US Mission to UN, 2022). Nevertheless, the Indian-led connectivity projects can counterbalance it. Central Asian states must assert diplomatic autonomy to ensure the BRI supports peacebuilding rather than exacerbating conflicts.
Integrating Afghanistan and the South Caucasus
Afghanistan’s historical, economic, and cultural ties to Central Asia make its inclusion in the Zone of Peace critical, yet Taliban governance—lacking international legitimacy—and ongoing border security concerns hinder progress. TAPI and Lapis Lazuli Corridor projects aim to integrate Afghanistan economically, but the Iran–USA conflict risks causing spill over effects, including increased instability and migration, which could further complicate regional security. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan actively support Afghanistan connectivity projects, such as railway networks and energy corridors, while Tajikistan remains cautious due to security concerns (US Mission to UN, 2022).
Incorporating the South Caucasus—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—faces challenges from ongoing conflicts, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. However, the recent historic trip of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Türkiye indicates opening (Middle East Eye). Still Iran’s concerns over the Zangezur Corridor, perceived as enhancing Türkiye’s influence, could escalate if the Iran–USA conflict disrupts BRI routes (The Diplomat, 2024). A reimagined security framework, emphasizing shared Turco-Persian heritage and BRI connectivity, could facilitate integration, but robust diplomatic efforts are essential to resolve conflicts and foster trust.
Reducing Geopolitical Rivalries
Central Asia’s strategic position attracts intense competition from China, Russia, the US, EU, Türkiye, India, and Pakistan. The BRI risks amplifying China’s influence, particularly through its China–Iran–Russia network, prompting concerns from other powers. As mentioned, the Indian initiative supported by the West could counterbalance these worries to some extent. The Iran–USA conflict heightens these tensions, threatening Eurasian supply chains and the coherence of BRI projects. In addition, the EU’s engagement through the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor offers a counterbalance, promoting diversified partnerships. The resolution empowers Central Asian states as independent diplomatic actors, drawing lessons from ASEAN’s Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality (ZOPFAN), which demonstrates that robust regional mechanisms are critical for managing great power competition.
Conclusion: A Path Forward Amid Conflict
As of June 2025, the New Silk Road remains on track to support Central Asia’s Zone of Peace, Trust, and Cooperation, with BRI projects enhancing connectivity and diplomatic efforts, such as the Astana Summit and EU engagement, reinforcing the UN resolution’s objectives. The Iran–USA conflict introduces significant challenges, threatening energy markets, infrastructure, and regional security through potential disruptions and migration. By leveraging the resolution’s preventive diplomacy, embracing multiculturalism, and pursuing the inclusive integration of Afghanistan and the South Caucasus, Central Asia can balance the BRI’s economic benefits with regional autonomy and the Indian-led and Western supported initiatives can further bolster this prospect. Reform of OTS would also be helpful in balancing the regions interests. With sustained commitment to multilateral dialogue and strategic partnerships, the region can navigate these challenges to emerge as a global model for peace, trust, and cooperation.